Despite President Trump’s persistent refusals to concede, the whirlwind of a hard-fought presidential race has finally blown over. But the battle for control of the Senate continues unabated, as eyes shift south to one state in particular: Georgia—where two January run-off contests loom large.
After a momentous week underlined by nail-biting political uncertainty, Republicans have emerged with 50 seats, and Democrats, joined by the two independent senators who caucus with them, have secured 48. But the gap between those two positions could still be closed by Democrats—or expanded by Republicans—depending on the outcome of the Jan. 5 contests, two weeks before President elect Joe Biden’s inauguration.
During an election cycle in which poll predictions did not closely align with race outcomes, Democrats’ paths to victory in the Senate rapidly narrowed as Republican candidates outperformed expectations in several key contests. Of the roughly dozen seats thought to be competitive, Republicans managed to hold onto all but two—and they flipped one in Alabama formerly held by Doug Jones. Democrats on the other hand only clawed back two posts, one in Arizona and the other in Colorado—a mild ripple compared to the tidal wave that they needed.
“Given the type of tumultuous year we have had as a nation, perhaps it shouldn’t be all that shocking that our expectations have been flipped in this most important election,” said Sam Atwood, AP U.S. Government and Politics teacher. “The polls certainly overestimated the blue wave Democrats had hoped would materialize, so Biden’s campaign of unity wasn’t as strongly received as expected, but maybe more passive Republican supporters were not as genuine about their vote.”
In both the Carolinas, Republicans scored crucial wins during the race’s home stretch as they clinched swathes of votes among long-time supporters. While Democrats posed an influential force in these two states that traditionally lean red, come Election Night Republicans still triumphed.
Thom Tillis, the incumbent first-term senator from North Carolina, narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator and army veteran. After a week of uncertainty during which the race was deemed too close to call, Tillis finally emerged victorious with a razor-thin margin of 1.8 percent.
Only a month prior to the election, a flurry of political developments rocked both campaigns: Tillis contracted coronavirus, and Cunningham was caught sending romantic messages to a woman who is not his wife. While the extent of the impact of these developments is unknown, they likely influenced voters casting their ballots in the hours leading up to Election Day.
In the Palmetto State, Senator Lindsay Graham, the Republican chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, overcame a strong challenge by Jaime Harrison, a former chairman of the state’s Democratic Party, winning by a margin of 10.3 percent.
But the balance of power in the Senate ultimately hinges upon one state further south, with two run-off contests to be held in Georgia on Jan. 5. For the majority to swing blue, Democrats will need to win both of Georgia’s seats, in which case any deciding vote to break a 50-50 tie will be cast by Kamala Harris, the incoming Vice President. However, if Republicans win even one of the twin rematches, they will maintain control, and Biden will need one or more Republican votes to pass any bill.
The difference between a 50-50 Senate and a 51-49 chamber could translate to a stark productivity shift: with a blue push, Democrats could overcome gridlock to advance Biden’s ambitious policy agenda, which covers the pandemic, climate change, taxes and job creation, to name a few, according to Atwood.
“These runoffs are most crucial in terms of Biden’s appointments getting through the Senate,” Atwood said. “His actual policy agenda can still be stymied by the filibuster, but thanks to some recent rule changes in the Senate, appointments can no longer be filibustered. So wins in both Georgia runoff races would be good news for Biden getting his preferred cabinet members and federal judges confirmed in a timely manner.”
As millions of dollars in campaign funding pour into Georgia over the next several weeks, the eyes of the entire nation will be upon the Peach state. With control of the Senate on the line, the stakes could not be higher.
Image courtesy of SpeedMcCool/Wikimedia Commons
