Election fever isn’t just heating up. It’s scorching a blaze of party chaos.
Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, but to retain power they face steeper hurdles compared to Democrats Nov. 3. Of the 35 senators fighting for re-election, 12 are liberals, leaving 23 red slots up for grabs. With the race rounding out its final days, pressures are building on both sides as control of the Senate hangs in the balance.
“A potential Joe Biden presidency without Democratic control of the Senate would be completely impotent,” said Sam Atwood, who teaches AP U.S. Government and Politics. “He wouldn’t be able to pass any of the policies he’s campaigned on, or surround himself with the cabinet appointments he wants or get his federal judges confirmed. It would look a lot like most of Barack Obama’s presidency: partisan gridlock.”
Democrats are expected to flip two seats in Arizona and Colorado, while Republicans can only count on capturing one blue post. That likely victory lies in Alabama, where former football coach Tommy Tuberville stands poised to tackle Democratic incumbent Doug Jones. If these races play out as expected, then the Republican advantage will be narrowed from six seats to only four, 52-48.
But the question of who will control the Senate hinges on seven toss-up contests, of which the Carolinas—both North and South—are linchpins. If Democrats bring home three victories, the Senate will tip blue with a 51-49 Democratic majority. If they clinch only two wins, the Senate will be evenly split, with the party controlling the White House also ruling the Senate, since the Vice President breaks voting ties. To hold their majority, Republicans will need to land a seat in at least five of these tough battles.
Here in the Tar Heel state, a string of game-changing developments, alongside frequent B.B.Q. disputes over Twitter, have left voters’ heads spinning. Even after romantic texts sent to a woman who is not his wife were uncovered, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a decorated army veteran, has maintained the lead over Thom Tillis, one of the Republican Party’s most vulnerable incumbents. Tillis’ campaign, which was already losing vital momentum in the polls, was also hampered after he tested positive for COVID-19, shuttering his campaign headquarters.
If all unfolds as projected, Cunningham would be one of a few Democratic senators to represent North Carolina in decades. Tillis’ current seat, alongside his fellow Senator Richard Burr’s, has been a part of the Republican stronghold for most of the past, with Democrat Kay Hagan having held the seat for only one term.
Yet over the past 50 years, a fresh story has begun to emerge as shifting demographics have pipelined Hispanics and Northern liberals into the state’s blooming suburbs. By turning North Carolina a cooler shade of purple, these population trends have boosted Cunningham’s chances, alongside the possibility of a colorful turnover in the Senate.
Next door in the Palmetto state, Republican incumbent Lindsay Graham faces a formidable challenge from Jaime Harrison, who would become the first Black Democratic senator from the Deep South if elected. Defeating a three-term senator is no easy task, but Harrison’s campaign, energized by an army of loyal supporters, has made substantial strides over the past several weeks.
A bountiful warchest may also enable Harrison to upend the traditional Southern narrative. In a single quarter, Harrison raised $57 million—more than any other Senate candidate, and $20 million more than Beto O’Rourke, the former Texas Democratic candidate and record-holder. The polls reflect a slight lead for Graham, but are generally within the margin of error.
Much will ride on the outcome of these contests. On healthcare, the composition of the Supreme Court and economic policy, to name just a few, the two parties have diametrically opposed views. Whether a tide of red or blue washes over the Senate may ultimately rest upon the few hundred ballot boxes and voting stations scattered across the Carolinas.
Photo courtesy of Graysonbarnette/Wikimedia
