When Duke visited UNC in early February, the Blue Devils blitzed out to a 31-8 lead which allowed Coach K to enjoy a leisurely second half in his penultimate regular season game in the storied rivalry. The Heels couldn’t find anything in the way of scoring in the first 10 minutes of the game outside of two Brady Manek threes and a lone Armando Bacot pick and roll layup, but Duke was firing on all cylinders.
Although UNC cut the lead to 11 at the half, the Blue Devils maintained a double-digit lead for the remainder of the game to win 87-67.
The two teams will face off for the final time at Cameron Indoor in the Coach K era on Saturday, and the Heels are going to have to do some soul searching and make some serious adjustments if they want to make the game competitive.
These are the keys to the game for Hubert Davis’ team in their regular season finale this weekend:
Put Leaky Black on Paolo Banchero
In the first bout, Banchero started off the game being guarded by Bacot.
Right off the bat, it became apparent that that wasn’t going to last very long. Banchero is far too talented to have a traditional center guarding him. The perennial projected top-3 NBA draft pick handles the ball like a point guard outside the three-point line, has the build of a power forward and can pull up and shoot from anywhere on the court. He’s been a serious matchup problem for every team Duke has played.
The only Tar Heel with the skill and size necessary to attempt to slow down Banchero is Leaky Black. Black has been described as a lockdown defender with elite length at some point during every UNC game broadcast this season. He always gets the assignment of shutting down the opposing team’s most potent offensive weapon. The only reason he wasn’t guarding Banchero during the first contest is that UNC’s starters match up very poorly with Duke’s starters on the defensive end, and Coach Davis thought that Black had to guard AJ Griffin instead.
Clearly that didn’t work either; Griffin scored 27 points in that game because Black (and the rest of the Heels on the floor) constantly needed to help a struggling Bacot in the high-post.
At the start of the game (at least), Black should guard Banchero; Bacot should guard the 7-foot center Mark Williams; Manek should guard Wendell Moore Jr.; RJ Davis should guard Trevor Keels; and Caleb Love should guard Griffin.
The biggest issue for UNC in that scenario is the Manek-Moore matchup—and it’s a big one.
Would that go really poorly for Manek? Yes.
Would Moore probably score 20+ points and tear through Manek’s defense with pump-fakes and drives? For sure.
But in the game, the Heels are going to have to pick their poison; and the most lethal poison is Banchero.
Of course this is all contingent on UNC playing man-to-man defense for the whole game, which they’ve played for 40 minutes in the majority of their games this year. Coach Davis switched to a 2-3 zone for a short time during the first game, but it wasn’t particularly effective.
Man-to-man is in the Heels’ DNA, so it’d be surprising if they tried to change their identity for the last game of the regular season.
The guards need to stay disciplined
Love and Davis have alternated between good and bad throughout the season. Every other game, it seems like one of them forgets that they’re playing Division I basketball in favor of thinking they’re playing “let’s see how many fast-break layups we can give the other team by throwing the ball right to them.”
That’s not an actual game, but they sure do make it seem like one.
Both of them need to play their best game of the season on both ends of the floor if the Heels are to have a chance at walking out with a win.
Davis, in particular, is going to have to deal with guarding Keels, who is four inches taller and 45 pounds heavier than him. He can’t let Keels’ dribble penetration give the other Blue Devils open shots.
Love, on the other hand, needs to keep the turnover-happy side of himself in the locker room and to stay level-headed in the face of what is sure to be the most hostile crowd he’s ever faced. And, while he’s certainly showcased his ability to knock down step-back 27-footers, maybe a more methodical approach on offense would benefit the Heels this weekend.
Bacot needs to be aware of the situation
UNC played Duke, Michigan, Kentucky and Purdue this year, all of which have an elite frontcourt.
In each of those games, at least at times, Bacot has failed to recognize his most valuable skill: kicking the ball out to his guards (and Manek) who are among the best three-point shooters in the country. He often tries to force the ball up into three or more defenders in the post and gets blocked or has the ball stripped when he has three wide open teammates on the perimeter.
He’s one of the best bigs in the country, but that doesn’t obligate him to take a shot every time he touches the ball in the low-post.
The Heels need to play inside-out on the offensive end in order to loosen up the Duke defense that held them to eight points through 10 minutes in February.
Weather the early storm
There are supposedly going to be upwards of 80 former Duke players at Cameron for the game. Just getting in the building costs upwards of $4,000 and, on the high end, four tickets on the floor sold for $1 million at a charity auction. Suffice to say, the atmosphere in Durham for Coach K’s final home game is going to be the most intimidating any Tar Heel has ever faced.
The Blue Devils are going to come out firing, and UNC has to find a way to answer early. If they don’t, the game is going to get out of hand quickly and it’s going to leave a bad taste in the Heels’ mouths come the ACC Tournament next week.
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